Cordamente
US index futures and ETFs

Index Breakout 1

Intraday momentum breakout reproduced across Nasdaq and S&P

Backtest results · hypothetical, not live

4 variations

Higher leverage: more CAGR, more drawdown

Equity Curve

Jan 2018 →︎ Apr 2026 · hypothetical backtest · normalized to $100k start
$1.3M$1.0M$673k$336k$0
Jan 18Jan 20Feb 22Mar 24Apr 26

Drawdown

depth from prior peak
30.5%22.9%15.2%7.6%0.0%
Jan 18Jan 20Feb 22Mar 24Apr 26

Performance

Annualized return
34.7%
Sharpe ratio
0.96
Max drawdown
−28.2%

Detail

Sortino
0.91
Expectancy
0.15
PSR
46%
Win rate
56%
Beta
0.05
Alpha
+22.40%
Avg win / loss
1.76% / -1.66%

Results from a single backtest on QuantConnect. Costs and slippage modeled per the strategy's deployment specification.

About

Universe
US index futures and ETFs
Horizon
Intraday

An intraday momentum breakout strategy that has been reproduced across both major US index families, the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500, using both futures contracts and equity ETFs. The same underlying dynamic appears regardless of which instrument is used. This cross-symbol consistency is the strongest evidence that the edge is structural rather than an artifact of one instrument's microstructure.

Two variants are included. Both define an intraday breakout level from recent price behavior and enter when the session moves decisively beyond it. Both exit intraday; every trade is flat by the close.

A volatility-aware position sizing keeps risk per trade roughly constant whether markets are calm or turbulent. Costs are modeled pessimistically: every trade is costed as if execution were against retail-grade fills, with slippage applied as a price adjustment on top of commissions.

Multiple risk tiers and out-of-sample windows are included to show how the edge behaves across different capital levels, leverage choices, and market regimes. Currently in live simulation, returning +3% so far.